SDST3907 Linear models and forecasting (6 credits) Academic Year 2025
Offering Department SCDS (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science) Quota ---
Course Co-ordinator Mr H Y Y Cheung, SCDS (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science) < hcheung4@hku.hk >
Teachers Involved (Mr H Y Y Cheung,Statistics & Actuarial Science)
Course Objectives This course deals with applied statistical methods of linear models and investigates various forecasting procedures through using linear models and time series analysis.
Course Contents & Topics Regression and multiple linear regression; predicting; generalized linear models; time series models including autoregressive, moving average, autoregressive-moving average and integrated models; forecasting.
Course Learning Outcomes
On successful completion of this course, students should be able to:

CLO 1 fit a simple or multiple linear regression model to real data
CLO 2 do ANOVA analysis
CLO 3 identify and fit a suitable AR, MA or ARMA model to real data
CLO 4 perform residual analysis
CLO 5 do forecasting with these fitted models
CLO 6 fit generalized linear model to real data
Pre-requisites
(and Co-requisites and
Impermissible combinations)		 Pass in SDST2602 or SDST3902, or already enrolled in this course; and
Not for students who have passed in SDST3600, or have already enrolled in this course; and
Not for students who have passed in SDST4601, or have already enrolled in this course; and
Not for students who have passed in ECON2280, or have already enrolled in this course; and
For BSc(Actuarial Science) students only.
Only for students admitted in 2025 and thereafter.
Course Status with Related Major/Minor /Professional Core 2U000C00 Course not offered under any Major/Minor/Professional core
2024 BSc in Actuarial Science ( Core/Compulsory )
2023 BSc in Actuarial Science ( Core/Compulsory )
2022 BSc in Actuarial Science ( Core/Compulsory )
2021 BSc in Actuarial Science ( Core/Compulsory )
Course to PLO Mapping 2024 BSc in Actuarial Science < PLO 1,3,5 >
2023 BSc in Actuarial Science < PLO 1,3,5 >
2022 BSc in Actuarial Science < PLO 1,3,5 >
2021 BSc in Actuarial Science < PLO 1,3,5 >
Offer in 2025 - 2026 Y        2nd sem    Examination May     
Offer in 2026 - 2027 Y
Course Grade A+ to F
Grade Descriptors
A Demonstrate thorough mastery at an advanced level of extensive knowledge and skills required for attaining all the course learning outcomes. Show strong analytical and critical abilities and logical thinking, with evidence of original thought, and ability to apply knowledge to a wide range of complex, familiar and unfamiliar situations. Apply highly effective organizational and presentational skills.
B Demonstrate substantial command of a broad range of knowledge and skills required for attaining at least most of the course learning outcomes. Show evidence of analytical and critical abilities and logical thinking, and ability to apply knowledge to familiar and some unfamiliar situations. Apply effective organizational and presentational skills.
C Demonstrate general but incomplete command of knowledge and skills required for attaining most of the course learning outcomes. Show evidence of some analytical and critical abilities and logical thinking, and ability to apply knowledge to most familiar situations. Apply moderately effective organizational and presentational skills.
D Demonstrate partial but limited command of knowledge and skills required for attaining some of the course learning outcomes. Show evidence of some coherent and logical thinking, but with limited analytical and critical abilities. Show limited ability to apply knowledge to solve problems. Apply limited or barely effective organizational and presentational skills.
Fail Demonstrate little or no evidence of command of knowledge and skills required for attaining the course learning outcomes. Lack of analytical and critical abilities, logical and coherent thinking. Show very little or no ability to apply knowledge to solve problems. Organization and presentational skills are minimally effective or ineffective.
Communication-intensive Course N
Course Type Lecture-based course
Course Teaching
& Learning Activities
Activities Details No. of Hours
Lectures 36.0
Tutorials 12.0
Reading / Self study 100.0
Assessment Methods
and Weighting
Methods Details Weighting in final
course grade (%)		 Assessment Methods
to CLO Mapping
Assignments Coursework (assignments, tutorials, a computer-based assessment and a class test) 25.0 1,2,3,4,5,6
Examination One 3-hour written examination 75.0 1,2,3,4,5,6
Required/recommended reading
and online materials		 R. S. Pindyck & D. L. Rubinfeld: Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts (McGraw-Hill, 1998, 4th edition)
Abraham & J. Ledolter: Statistical Methods for Forecasting (John Wiley & Sons, 2005, 2nd edition)
G. E. P. Box, G. M. Jenkins & G. Reinsel: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (Prentice Hall, 1994, 3rd edition)
G James, D Witten, T Hastie and R Tibshirani (2021) An Introduction to Statistical Learning with Applications in R, second edition, Springer.
Course Website http://moodle.hku.hk
Additional Course Information NIL